Need to Know Briefing | February 16

How strong was January's jobs report—really?

On the surface, January looked like a win. U.S. employers added 130,000 jobs, significantly more than the 75,000 economists anticipated, marking the strongest month of employment gains since December 2024. The unemployment rate declined to 4.3% from 4.4% in December, and for workers in their prime working years (25 to 54), the labor force participation rate jumped to 84.1%—the highest level since 2001.

But the details tell a more complicated story. Healthcare added 82,000 jobs and construction added 33,000, while the federal government lost 35,000 positions and financial services shed 22,000. The average workweek edged up by 0.1 hours—a sign of strong labor demand—and average hourly earnings rose 0.4% to $37.17, up 3.7% over the past year.

There's also this: November and December job totals were both revised downward. November dropped from +56,000 to +41,000, and December fell from +50,000 to +48,000. Read more via Bureau of Labor Statistics, The New York Times, CNN

Why were 2024–2025 job numbers overstated?

New Bureau of Labor Statistics data reveals that U.S. employers added far fewer jobs in 2024 and 2025 than previously estimated. The agency's annual benchmark revision—where monthly payroll estimates from employer surveys are squared with more reliable state government data—found 898,000 fewer jobs added between April 2024 and March 2025.

The scale of the revision is significant. A previous estimate suggested the economy added 584,000 jobs in 2025. That has been revised to just 181,000, or roughly 15,000 jobs per month. And 2024 job growth estimates were lowered by nearly 28%. While benchmark revisions are a longstanding annual process, they've historically been small and attracted little attention. This year's revision is hard to ignore. Read more via Bureau of Labor Statistics, The New York Times

Is the U.S. labor market running on one engine?

Healthcare continues to be the dominant force in U.S. employment. In January, nearly all of the 130,000 new jobs added were in the healthcare sector, even as other sectors reined in hiring or shed jobs entirely. Demand for some healthcare roles—including nurses—is so strong that providers are outbidding each other with five-figure signing bonuses and generous paid time off.

Experts told The Wall Street Journal the sector is way outperforming most of the rest of the economy. That's the good news. The risk: the economy's dependence on a single sector for job growth means trouble if and when healthcare hiring slows. Read more via The Wall Street Journal

What's happening with reverse discrimination and the EEOC?

Legal experts are warning employers to prepare for aggressive EEOC activity around reverse discrimination this year. Last year saw lawsuits filed against employers on behalf of White employees challenging hiring practices, training, and internal DEI policies. And in June 2025, a Supreme Court ruling cleared the way for the removal of court-imposed barriers on majority-group plaintiffs alleging job discrimination.

The shift is coming from the top. In December 2025, EEOC Chair Andrea Lucas posted on X encouraging White males who've experienced workplace discrimination to file claims under federal civil rights laws. And last month, President Trump told The New York Times that the concept of reverse discrimination is driving his aggressive crusade against diversity policies.

The EEOC is already acting on this. The agency is now investigating Nike for DEI policies it alleges amounted to discrimination against White workers—what appears to be the first time the EEOC has targeted diversity policies at a large company. Nike called the filing a surprising and unusual escalation. Legal experts say employers should review the EEOC's technical assistance on DEI-related discrimination and the Department of Justice's guidance issued last year. Read more via HR Dive, The New York Times

Why are job seekers now paying recruiters?

The white-collar labor market has become so tough that a new trend is flipping the traditional model: reverse recruiting. Instead of employers paying recruiters to find talent, candidates are now paying recruiters to match them with positions. Services like Refer connect job seekers to roles, and if a candidate lands the job, they pay a percentage of their first month's paycheck. Other services charge a set rate to submit applications on a candidate's behalf.

The numbers underscore why. Job applicants now have just a 0.4% chance of being hired, according to Greenhouse. And 38% of employers avoid hiring recent graduates for roles they're technically qualified for. The trend is another sign of the mounting challenges for white-collar job seekers. Read more via The Wall Street Journal, Slate

Are young women lowballing themselves out of fair pay?

A growing number of younger female job seekers are volunteering to accept pay below posted salary ranges, according to Slate. The data behind the trend is stark: Gen Z women already expect to earn $6,200 less on average than male peers, according to Handshake research on reservation wages. And experts warn that lowballing rarely works—hiring managers often interpret below-range offers as a signal that candidates don't understand the role or lack confidence.

There's a compounding effect, too. Women who accept steep pay cuts to join a firm often believe they can catch up later, but they frequently remain behind as newer hires come in at higher salaries. In a market where finding a job is statistically harder than getting accepted to an elite college, the pressure to underbid is understandable—but the long-term cost is real. Read more via Slate

What will it take to retain millennial talent in 2026?

Half of millennial knowledge workers say they would pursue new opportunities if advancement paths aren't clear, according to a new General Assembly survey of 515 millennials ages 29–44 in the U.S. and UK. Satisfaction varies dramatically by seniority: 94% of directors and above are content, compared to just 63% of individual contributors.

The loyalty is conditional. Should hiring improve, almost half of millennials would pursue new positions, more than a third would engage with recruiters, and just 14% say they're committed to staying put. Workers also feel urgent about AI skill development—two in five report their foundational skills becoming outdated due to automation, with more than a quarter already experiencing career disruption. And 40% perceive their employers favor external candidates over internal promotions—a view held by nearly half of senior leaders themselves. Read more via General Assembly

How are employers addressing cognitive decline in an aging workforce?

The number of older adults who are working has increased from 47% in 1987 to 62% today. And while there are no statistics on how many older workers are experiencing dementia specifically, experts confirm that functional memory declines naturally with age and dementia risk increases with age. Many older workers are reluctant to acknowledge cognitive decline, and primary-care doctors often miss the conditions.

The good news: workers in the early stages of cognitive decline can continue working with flexible schedules and technology-based reminders. The challenge for employers is creating environments that support aging workers without stigma. Read more via The Wall Street Journal

Are beehives the newest employee wellbeing strategy?

A growing number of employers—particularly in the UK—are installing beehives on rooftops, in courtyards, and car parks as part of workplace wellbeing programs. They're positioning beekeeping not as a novelty but as a way to ease stress, build community, and reconnect workers with nature in an era of hybrid work and burnout. Buckley's Bees has about 24 UK clients and more than 10 international ones, and reports business has grown so quickly they're recruiting additional staff.

The trend isn't limited to the UK. Best Bees operates a corporate beehiving program across the U.S. with clients including New Balance, L'Oreal, and TJX. Whether it's cameras installed inside hives for desk-based bee watching or field trips to learn beekeeping, the through-line is the same: shared, purpose-driven goals and honest communication—values most businesses are striving to build. Read more via The Guardian

Is AI disruption closer than we think?

AI startup founder Matt Shumer's essay "Something Big Is Happening" has surpassed 80 million views, striking a nerve with its comparison of AI's current moment to the early days of the COVID pandemic—when the threat felt distant but was about to change everything. Shumer argues that AI is advancing at a pace that few understand, and that tech workers have already watched AI go from a helpful tool to something that does their jobs better than they do, in under a year.

His warning is blunt: predictions of AI eliminating 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years are conservative, and the disruption will be different from every previous wave of automation. He's urging workers to test current AI tools now—noting that anyone who hasn't tested AI recently will find what exists today unrecognizable. Read more via LinkedIn, CNBC

What is OpenClaw—and why is it going viral?

Interest in the open-source AI assistant formerly known as Clawdbot (it changed its name multiple times, including to Moltbot, after Anthropic flagged confusion with its Claude AI) is surging. OpenClaw describes itself as AI that actually does things—an agentic AI personal assistant that runs locally on your device, checking your calendar, email, and sending messages through your own applications.

What makes it different is full system access. OpenClaw can read and write files, run commands, execute scripts, and control your browser. It remembers everything you've ever told it and proactively takes personalized action. Experts call it impressive but flag significant privacy and security concerns if not installed correctly. Read more via Mashable, TechCrunch

Are companies cutting jobs based on AI hype—not results?

Decisions to reduce workforce size are being driven primarily by expectations of what AI will eventually accomplish rather than demonstrated productivity gains, according to a survey of 1,006 global executives by the Return on AI Institute. The numbers are telling: 39% of organizations made low to moderate workforce reductions, 21% made substantial cuts, and 29% are maintaining lower hiring volumes than previously normal. But only 2% attribute major reductions to AI systems actually performing work.

Nearly half of leaders (44%) identified generative AI as the hardest technology to evaluate economically. And the preemptive cuts create a dangerous feedback loop: cutting staff before automation materializes signals to remaining workers that their positions are vulnerable, making them less willing to experiment with AI tools. Read more via Harvard Business Review

What did Congress learn about AI and worker safety?

The House Workforce Protections Subcommittee examined AI's impact on worker safety in a February 11 hearing. Expert witnesses emphasized the importance of human oversight when deploying AI safety tools, while warning that AI tracking of worker activity could create new physical and psychosocial hazards from surveillance anxiety and fear of job loss.

The hearing also highlighted legitimate safety applications: wearables that detect heat stress, AI-enabled cameras, exoskeletons, and predictive analytics. Elected officials stressed the need for strong safety standards and full funding for safety-related agencies. Read more via Safety and Health

AI Roundup

Heineken is cutting 6,000 jobs, with the CEO citing AI as partly behind the plan to reduce up to 7% of its workforce in pursuit of productivity savings. (CNBC) An AI security company inadvertently interviewed a deepfaked candidate for a security researcher role—a deepfake detection company determined there was a 95% chance face-swapping technology was used. (IT Brew) And building materials company Cemex is deploying an AI-powered financial agent trained on thousands of internal data points to help about 100 senior leaders make better-informed business decisions via natural language chat. (Microsoft)

Global Snapshot

In Australia, 93% of employers say they face challenges identifying suitable candidates amid a surge of overqualified applicants, with 82% reporting an increase in overqualified applications. France's GDP grew 0.9% in 2025—above initial forecasts of 0.7% but below the 1.1% and 1.6% growth rates achieved in 2024 and 2023, respectively. Irish hiring activity hit its lowest level of 2025 in December for permanent, contract, and temporary roles. And in Switzerland, unemployment rose to 2.9% in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, with the number of unemployed exceeding 120,000—up from the January 2025 total.

NOTE: There will be no Need to Know Briefing published Monday, February 23. The next issue will be published Monday, March 2.

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About the Need to Know Briefing

The Need to Know Briefing is published weekly by Kelly, curating the most important workforce and hiring insights for HR leaders and hiring managers.